A billion computers are still using Windows 10, half of which are too old to be upgraded to Windows 11.
Dell's Chief Operating Officer Jeffrey Clarke stated during the company's latest earnings call that there are currently about 500 million Windows devices that cannot be upgraded to Windows 11 due to outdated hardware; another approximately 500 million devices, although meeting the hardware requirements, have not yet been upgraded by users. In his view, these two categories of existing devices together constitute a significant market opportunity for new platforms—whether through software updates or direct hardware replacements.
Data from third-party statistics agency StatCounter on desktop systems also corroborates this phenomenon from the perspective of system share: Windows 10 still accounts for about 42.62% of the desktop Windows system market, while Windows 11 slightly leads with about 53.79%. Following behind, Windows 7 has a market share of less than 3%, mainly concentrated in a small number of older devices and specific industry environments.
It is generally believed within the industry that the large-scale migration from Windows 10 to Windows 11 will not happen overnight. To reduce security risks, Microsoft launched an extended security update plan for Windows 10, providing critical security patches for one year after the end of mainstream support: OneDrive users can obtain it for free, while other users can pay a one-time fee of around $30, or redeem it with 1,000 Microsoft Rewards points. This somewhat extends the "security lifespan" of Windows 10 and eases the pressure on users to upgrade immediately.
Even without the extended update plan, it would be almost impossible for all Windows 10 users to complete the upgrade in a short period. From the perspective of user behavior, some users lack awareness of the risks associated with not promptly installing security updates, or they are satisfied with the current system experience and unwilling to change; at the same time, many software programs and online services continue to support Windows 10 for a certain period, which reduces the urgency for users to migrate.
On the other hand, since its release as the successor to Windows 10 at the end of 2021, the promotion process of Windows 11 has not gone smoothly. Microsoft set relatively strict hardware thresholds, including CPU models, TPM, and secure boot requirements, preventing many still-functional older models from being upgraded. This forces users who wish to upgrade to consider purchasing new devices, causing dissatisfaction among some users who feel that Microsoft has overly tied system upgrades to hardware replacement.
Under the influence of multiple factors such as system distribution, hardware conditions, and security policies, Windows 10 will maintain a large installed base in the short term. For Microsoft and PC manufacturers, this means ongoing maintenance costs and security pressures, and also foretells that the upgrade wave surrounding Windows 11 and subsequent platforms in the coming years will proceed in a slow but long-term manner.